Cox Automotive Forecast: Used Car Market to Slow Down in Q3 and Q4, But Remain Up Overall in 2024
The used car market has been a hot topic of discussion lately, with many wondering what the future holds for this industry. According to Cox Automotive’s latest forecast, the market is set to slow down during Q3 and Q4 of 2024. However, despite this temporary slowdown, the overall outlook for 2024 remains positive.
In their revised baseline forecast, Cox Automotive predicts a slight decrease in activity during the second half of the year compared to their previous forecast. This is due to various factors that will impact both wholesale supply and consumer demand. Despite this, the total number of transactions for the year is expected to be higher than previously forecasted, with a total of 7,434,709 transactions anticipated by the end of 2024.
Philip Nothard, Cox Automotive’s insight director, highlighted the resilience of the used car market during the first half of the year, despite challenges such as subdued retail demand and margin pressures. However, he also cautioned against assuming that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. Factors such as tightening supply, price competition in the new car space, and low consumer confidence are expected to impact the market in the coming months.
One of the key factors influencing the market is the fast-moving dynamics in the new car market, as well as the limited availability of in-demand ICE variants and volatile EV values. The changing fuel types in the vehicle car parc are also impacting the market, with the number of ICE models entering the new market decreasing rapidly.
Despite these challenges, Cox Automotive remains optimistic about the resilience of the automotive sector. Nothard emphasized that while significant hurdles are expected in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, the volume of transactions in the used car market is a positive sign that demand and profit opportunities still exist.
Overall, the forecast for the used car market in 2024 may show a temporary slowdown, but the industry is expected to bounce back and remain strong in the long run. For more insights and information, you can check out Cox Automotive’s latest Insight Quarterly update.